I’ve been watching the coalition talks unfold over the weekend, paying particular attention to the way the message track from the Liberal Democrats has evolved. And something struck me.
Yesterday, the main message track was “we are listening to what the Conservatives have to offer, we are consulting with all parts of the party, there is a triple lock in place which stops Nick Clegg from doing a deal without the full support of the party, some of our senior MPs are still not convinced, and we want our supporters to tell us what they think”. I emailed balancedparliament@libdemvoice.org, copying one of the co-editors of LibDem Voice. I spread the word on Twitter and even texted all my friends, especially those in the South West with LibDem MPs, letting them know and urging them to make sure the LibDems were aware of their views. (One upside was that I actually re-established contact with someone I hadn’t spoken to in a while – you know who you are. 🙂 Yesterday, everything was still to play for.
Today, the message has been evolving. Lord Ashdown came out saying the LibDems’ instincts pulled them one way, while the maths of the hung Parliament pulled them the other. I got an email from the co-editor of LibDem Voice:

“I don’t disagree with any of what you say – but I don’t see how the votes will stack up for a Lib/Lab coalition that will last. And I can’t see Lab backbenchers actually deciding to vote for PR.”

The rhetoric of stability, of trying to build a coalition government that will actually last, of not having to go back to the country in 12-18 months’ time has become more prominent over the course of today.
And here is the elephant in the room: The maths of the hung Parliament we have ended up with is such that any coalition coming out of it, short of a Grand Coalition, is highly unlikely to last more than 18 months. Even if the LibDems and the Tories reach some sort of agreement over the next couple of days that would give them the majority the Tories want, there is too much dissent in both of those parties for them not to fall our over some of the policies where they don’t have common ground. The hardline Tory backbenchers will walk out, or half the LibDem MPs will at some point realise that they can’t quite square the circle anymore. Whatever coalition we finally get is highly unlikely to be stable or last.
And having addressed the elephant in the room, here is the question: Are we being stitched up by a narrative of a mythical stable government to accept a LibDem/Tory coalition which ultimately will not only not last but will also not address some of the key issues we are facing, especially electoral reform? I’ll leave it to you to make up your minds.